How could I Not write about this? I’m sitting in the lounge at the Port Townsend Film Festival, which I attend because I have a screenplay (true-life tall-ship growing-up buddy story from 1876), while one of my investments, QBTS, goes up 11.9% today, 52.3% for the week, 75.5% for the last month, and 2,700.0% for the most recent twelve months. It might be obvious that I’m making more money on the market than in the movies – so far.

D-Wave’s business (QBTS) has had good news, but I suspect its growth has been more about irrational pessimism replacing irrational optimism. Of course, irrational optimism may also be the feeling that helps some relationships cross early hurdles in relationships. 

The stock is at $26.88. I bought most of mine around $1, with one batch down near $0.75 about a year ago. I’m pretty sure I’m doing better than the market average. 

So what?

I tend to buy stocks for the long term. I’ve held GERN and MVIS since 1999/2000. My patience has not been rewarded. Other patient holds did provide rewards (SBUX, PIXR, FFIV, etc.). It feels a bit odd to have such a great return within such a short time. I’m not complaining. I’m also down 20% from where my holdings could be because I sold off enough to cover my investment as it first went up a few hundred percent. I buy stocks for the long term because I don’t want to have to time the market. GERN/MVIS on one side. QBTS on the other. And GERN/MVIS both have reasons to finally revive my hopes, and ideally, my net worth.

For years, QBTS languished in the space that is easy to fall into, an idea that is radical enough and early enough that it is hard to value. Within the last twelve months, QBTS has had news that even investing behemoths can’t squelch or ignore.

QBTS has gone from being a hope based on unknowns to being a possibility propped up by obvious successes. Investors don’t want to miss out on the next Intel or Nvidia, even though there’s no widely accepted valuation. They’re a $9B market cap supported by a few millions of dollars of sales, and the hope and expectation of early ownership of The Next Big Thing. I suspect few can explain quantum computing and annealing methods. But, hey, lots of people are excited about what’s happening. Maybe they should get some.

I am old enough and been investing long enough to not be excited, but to be hopeful. Folks laughed at AOL, which I bought at ~$1, watched go up to ~$80, and sold when it fell back to ~$40. Oh dear. I ‘lost’ 50%. Or. Cool. I made $39/share on a $1 investment.

I bought QBTS at ~$1. It is easier for me than most to imagine it rising to $80. I’d probably sell a bit along the way, but not yet.

Whoever sold any stock after a 20% increase in a year can celebrate successful investing. 

I want to thank the person who intended to corner me about my investing failures by asking how much was the most I lost. That’s easy. I’ve held several stocks that fell 100%. That train of thought made me realize that those losses were small compared to the amounts I’ve missed out on. I misread FFIV, so I sold some at $44 after buying some around $4. FFIV closed at $328 today. For relationship reasons, I held back from buying ten times more AOL. There went a potential million. I almost bought two bitcoins at ~$200. It is now at $115,500. There’s more.

I do not advise anyone to invest the way I invest. However, I encourage people to look past the mystique and fear marketing and the fear of missing out marketing to better understand how they should invest. My style of investing is risky. I know people who are far riskier investors. They think I am overly conservative because I invest for decades instead of minutes.

Writers can be encouraged to write in simple declarative statements. Life is more complicated than that. 

Investors can be encouraged to invest in solid financial situations. Most companies don’t start that way. 

I’m willing to invest early in companies involved in innovative, positive technologies. They are risky. Most fail. The most they fail is 100% (for longs.) The most they can rise is far higher than that. 

QBTS is an early enabler of quantum computing, which is a more radical technological shift from conventional computing than now-conventional computing was from tubes and Victorian difference engines. How big can that become? No one knows, but enough folks are guessing that QBTS has risen 2,700% in twelve months. Fine by me. Let’s see if it rises enough for me to buy a house, or if it falls (but since my holdings are pure profit, I won’t have a loss), or does something unexpected, which is the only real reality to expect.

And now, back to the fantasy/fantastic world of the Port Townsend Film Festival.