There’s that thought, but where’d it go? There’s that feeling, and it’s gone, too. There’s a thread of reality that is winding its way through modern reality. I can’t think or feel my way into being able to describe it, and then I take a nap, and there it is – until I wake up. The world is changing, and I suspect it is changing in ways that aren’t familiar to us. So, we live by habit, assuming old assumptions remain valid. Some day, the disconnect will require abandoning old habits; but what habits will we find we must give up, and which new habits must we learn? Just casual thoughts from a couple of naps, eh?

Regular readers know I frequently mention that a thirty-year mortgage assumes the world doesn’t change much in thirty years, though with an assumption that a person’s pay will be better and the burden of a mortgage will be less. I think that was somewhat valid for returning WWII soldiers in the late 40s looking at paying off a mortgage in the late 70s. Reasonable in hindsight.

I got my first mortgage in 1988. It lasted about three years as I sold the house to get married. That house was my address for almost a decade. Not the next one, it was a rental. Then, another for a few years. Finally, my home, which I just sold, was home from 2007 to 2024. That home was just right, but the mortgage was not. Now, I have a tiny house and no mortgage, which is just right for other reasons. (MyTinyExperiment.com)

But what about younger people trying to buy a house in the 2020s? I watch trends. I think the next five years will be turbulent enough to defy prognostication and guessing. 2055? I’d be amazed if USA has the same fifty states, extraterrestrial life may have been found, we may have had our Magna Carta moment. (Maybe A Magna Carta Moment) Climate change will be undeniable, and social injustices will probably grind themselves smooth, though through painful effort. And then there’s AI, which will not be waiting for us to catch up. 2055? Good luck guessing at that one.

And yet, guess we must.
Actually, guess they must. I intend to never have a mortgage again. (Be careful with ‘never.’) Amidst today’s turmoil, not having a mortgage means a major slice of instability and complexity has been removed from my life. Good. Stay tuned as love and money can change plans.

My investments, my personal finances, do not reflect my life. They reflect my expectations for subsequent generations. Older people don’t shop as much as younger people. Young people are having a harder time shopping and planning because their lives are much less certain and don’t show much sign of stabilizing, except into science fiction dystopias. Ugh.

But, of course, the thirty-year mortgage is not a commitment to thirty years of an unchanging life. Houses may only be held for a dozen years. Jobs change. Refinances happen. If inflation continues, a mortgage payment can shrink relatively and become a nuisance worth paying off. 

And yet, the thirty-year mortgage provides me with a perspective to measure world changes against.

And I reflect back on those nap dreams, those tenuous fragments of insight that are possibly no better than a guess.

Climate change will drive people to higher ground and more temperate zones. Technology changes are driving people to enforced mobility within their careers. Power is shifting from governments to corporations. Energy is more likely to be renewable and decentralized. 

Ebikes are gaining popularity. So are solar systems, as well as geothermal. Everything tech!, at least for careers and investments; though folks with farmable land may be the most stable. Handicrafts that benefit from human imperfections may gain popularity, but probably won’t be a major part of the economy. (Prove me wrong.) None of those are without struggles and hurdles. Investing involves risk.

And how will investing change as AI competes against humans?

My apologies that there is no clear resolution of these uncertainties. Predicting the future was difficult enough when change was measured in dynasties and generations. Change is accelerating to months, weeks, days, etc. A thirty-year mortgage? Maybe that’s one change worth predicting, the death of long-term debt instruments.

I think I need a nap.