Further, Farther – Google it, the AI should know which describes my mostly positive week. It was positive in many ways, financial and more, but this blog is about the financial, so you’ll have ot guess at the ‘more’ (or sift through my social media posts – tetrimbath). My portfolio has been up, lately. Buy into it? Sell and take profits? Hold because I am investor and not a trader? Those options are less important than my improved finances mean I am further from worry. Or is it farther?

Regular readers know that I usually do a semi-annual portfolio review at the end of December and the end of June. That also means the reviews get lost in holiday posts, but that’s okay. I do the reviews for myself. But in the weirdness that is the modern world, I am challenging myself to celebrate positive moments when they happen.

This week, GERN was up >12%, LCTX was up >50%, QBTS was up ~50%, and SLDP was up >9%. Considering that historical annual returns are typically ~7% to 10%, those are nice returns within a week. GERN and LCTX have been lagging, despite what I thought was good news; maybe the market is finally noticing their biotech progress. SLDP was a surprise, and may be a fluke. I like solid battery tech, but don’t expect anything for years – but buy early because timing stocks is – difficult – flaky – chaotic.

The biggest move was QBTS. Not only was it up ~50%, its low of the year was $0.75 and has traded close to $20. Evidently, I had some lucky, flaky, insightful, brilliant, randomly successful timing when I bought it for about a buck.

Sell! I hear. Sell! I did. In March, I sold enough to cover my initial investment. My current holding is pure profit (though taxes and fees will diminish that with a sale.) And yet, sell?

The optimist sees a sunny day and knows tomorrow will be sunny, too. The pessimist sees a sunny day and knows we’re due for some rain. We have weather forecasters because we know that we don’t really know, but need the best guess going.

The reason for my hesitancy is mathematical. Evidently, Einstein pointed out the power of compound interest. Percentages matter. 
A stock that rises from $1 to $2 went up 100%. Great! It also only went up a dollar. 
Rising from $2 to $4 is another 100%, and is two bucks. OK. That still isn’t going to pay for a cup of anything. 
$8? A latte and maybe a cookie. 
$16? A cheap meal. 
$32? A nicer meal, or maybe a tank of gas. 
$64? A nice meal, but not yet a day’s living expenses.
$128? A frugal person’s daily bread and more.
$256? Is this getting ridiculous? Nope. 

Imagine buying a stock at $1, then trying to imagine it going up $255 in a day. That’s ridiculous. And yet, that’s how compounding works. Math geeks know that a dollar doubled ten times becomes worth $1024 (really 2^10). Doubled twenty times and get $1,048,576. Hello, millionaire. 

That much doubling doesn’t happen, or at least not often, but it points out an emotional and pragmatic quandary. How much higher can it go? A stock that went from $1 to $10 has gone up hundreds of percent, but the step from $10 to $20 is ‘only’ a hundred percent. That next step to $20 seems more reasonable when seen from $10 than from $1. 

Withing twelve months, QBTS has risen from $0.75 to ~$19. (I’ll have to check later because the market hasn’t closed as I type.) The realistic limiting measure can be the company’s market cap. Currently, QBTS is worth >$5B. What’s the likelihood that they’ll hit $10B, $100B? Market cap rather than a stock’s price can be a better metric. I think QBTS can become much more valuable because they are in a new industry that has few competitors.

Let’s see. MSFT is worth >$3T, or $3,000B. So that’s a reasonable estimate of an upper limit. There’s room to grow.

Of all the errors I’ve made in investing, selling too early or not buying enough have been larger sums than any of my losses, and considering my losses, that’s what sticks with me. 

I’m glad I sold off a portion to cover my investment. If, however, I’d held onto those shares, they’d be worth double what I got for them. If I sell some now, will I look brilliant for taking a profit, or will I be limiting an enabling resource? There’s no way to know.

I do know, however, that whether I buy or sell, I perceive my situation very favorably (duh, understatement.) Personal finance is personal, which means it has an emotional component. Idealists suggest taking emotion out of it, but I’m human and decide to not de-humanize myself. I find myself farther from worry.

If you want some history, and be careful what you ask for, read through this blog about My Triple Whammy. In general terms, my net worth dropped 98% from its previous peak. They caught the folks, but that money’s gone. My doctors can attest that I am recovering from over a decade of stress from my version of poverty. I can also attest that selling my home on Whidbey Island has enabled my tiny-house life outside Port Townsend. After a traumatic upset, I’ve been getting healthier. Being poor is unhealthy, and that health does not immediately recover as the wealth recovers. Healing takes time.

And now this good news. Whew.

This is good news, and I’ve already had to rephrase my good news when talking to the few I share the details with. It is easy to say, “Hey, my portfolio did well today. I made a bunch of money.” (And I never express it that way because speech isn’t the same as writing.) With some, I know I have to be pedantic, “Hey, my unrealized net worth, regardless of commissions, fees, and taxes, increased significantly, at least temporarily.” Internally, I say, “Dude. We made some money today. Should we sell, buy, or procrastinate?)

I pass this along because internal dialogs are best chronicled as they happen. This one has been welcome and complex. Remember that my news was about more than QBTS? GERN, LCTX, and SLDP have all been ~$1 stocks. They all seem to be drawing attention from the market. ~$1 stocks are known as penny stocks in a derogatory fashion because many companies never break out of that category. And yet, imagine if GERN’s FDA-approved cancer treatments begin to treat cancers, LCTX’s spinal cord and retinal repair treatments gain FDA approval, and SLDP’s solid batteries prove to be safer and better than the lithium-ion batteries being used in many devices.

Further from worry? Farther from worry? There will always be reasons for worry, but there can also be reasons to relax, celebrate, participate, and share.