QBTS, the quantum computing company, has been both great and terrible, or doing just fine. It depends on how and when you look at it. And if one of the competing CEOs is about to talk, don’t be surprised to see another swing. At least for a few moments earlier this week, the stock was up over 1,000% within the last twelve months, but not now.

From my perspective, it is possible to skip any great analysis of QBTS. It is a quantum computing company. Quantum computing is hard enough to understand. Understanding its business prospects and its industry is like trying to predict next year’s iPhone from back in 1947 when the transistor was invented. The potential is unmeasurable. The upside is enormous. The downside relegates the technology to curiosity status. The reality is in the middle.

The most recent public data point was a QBTS computer solving a problem in twenty minutes. That seems long, but that problem could’ve taken a million years on a current supercomputer. Cool.

So, is that benchmark a mark of things to come in general, or is it a specific class of problem in a narrow niche without much further application? We don’t know. We don’t know. The market doesn’t know. Everything is largely opinion. Risk and reward are being measured in the stock price, which has been bouncing enough to generate quantum mechanics jokes, I am sure.

Billionaires make statements which are given much greater veracity than those of technicians. QBTS’ CEO makes a statement, and the stock goes up. Some other company’s CEO makes a statement, and QBTS’ stock goes down. The technical details haven’t changed. The ultimate customer, a technician at a customer’s company, is the best external judge of whether it is worth buying QBTS’ solution.

Bouncy. Bouncy. And the most important voices aren’t heard.

Investing in stocks is investing in companies. The stock price is simply the aggregate opinion of the company’s worth. Within the recent twelve months, QBTS has risen from $0.75 to $11.95, at least temporarily. Today (March 21, 2025) the stock closed at $8.36. Which perspective do you prefer? Oh no, the stock is down by over three dollars, or the stock is up over seven dollars? At least for a short while, the market thought it was worth $11.95. 

What investor doesn’t wish they bought at $0.75? Actually, many because some folks would never buy stock in a company they don’t understand. And, someone was the one that got those shares at such a low price. I bought in at about twice that. One set of shares was under $1.95. By at least one definition, that made those shares of QBTS a ten-bagger. Smile.

High risk. High reward. No guarantees.

I bought shares of QBTS because of the technology’s potential. I couldn’t buy shares in all of the quantum computing companies because there are too many, and many others aren’t pure plays. I picked well enough.

Usually, I’d caveat the ‘well enough’ because a stockholder only truly makes money in a non-dividend stock when they sell. I did. I sold enough to cover my initial investment. What remains is pure profit. A comforting feeling, and one that has been too rare lately.

As a fan of Long Term Buy and Hold, I tend to look at the long term data, too. Look back at the data from 2022 and see that QBTS was over $10. Some of those investors are only now making profit, and that’s ignoring the time value of money. Inflation eats profits. Some of them may be selling, which can depress today’s price.

Headlines lure readers by making bold claims. Exclamation points are assumed. The news was that QBTS is selling product, and that they have at least one clear case to cheer. Quantum computing is probably not a topic or trend to vanish in a week. I am confident that, like the transistor, we can’t predict how it will develop. Today’s benchmarks may have nothing to do with tomorrow’s applications. 

One application that I think is inevitable and unpredictable is the marriage of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. I haven’t heard of any work in that field, but both are becoming readily available to grad students. Whether companies are working on it or not, I’m sure there are grad students out there wondering what will happen when they mash the two together. If it is bad, well, oh well. If it is good, well, I might be overwhelmed and very glad I bought QBTS at less than $10.

Because, you see, a ten-bagger can become a ten-bagger, again.