This post brought to you by Overwhelm, a product that’s in great supply with more on the way.

(This post also brought to you by some ill health that is the result of a healthcare provider. Tough day, but that’s reality – and may some day be a post.)

Welcome to the end of January 2025, a month that was forecasted to be chaos. At least it didn’t disappoint in that regard. A bull is in the china shop, and it has a baseball bat. (My pardon to bulls. Mythbusters proved they can be quite graceful.) Crockery is hitting the floor as someone takes wild swings in the world simply because it seems like a good idea. What’s an investor to do? What’s any person to do?

Tariffs
So, increase the costs of goods sold, penalizing the citizenry as if they were the culprit in some crime. Doesn’t make much sense, but it does affect how to invest and buy things. I’m glad most of my investments are not in China, but I am surprised that Canada is targeted. (Canada?) Regardless, my foreign investments are not in commodities but in technologies where the product may be unique, and therefore, the market may be driven to solutions regardless because they meet unmet needs. Another reason to buy local? Except local has usually been more expensive, and maybe their costs went up too.

Immigrants
I don’t think immigrant laborers could’ve organized a better demonstration of their value than forcing millions of them out of the country. Food prices are going to climb. Farms will lose revenue from crop losses. When we finally admit we needed those people, regardless of nationality, they’ll be able to negotiate better wages and conditions – finally. They’ve been due for a long time. I suspect housing prices will rise as fewer contractors also means they can demand higher fees, too. (And I sold my house last year because I couldn’t find contractors willing to work on small jobs. Imagine how tough it might be to get a window, or plumbing, or electrical circuits fixed. Invest in trade schools or DIY classes? Businesses that rely on high-value products that don’t require much labor may be safer. May be.

Refugees
And we’ve got refugees, internal refugees. Climate change has forced itself into the top issue in many regions regardless of politics. Fires and floods have always been human worries. Politics is coming in as support networks are taken out, which may drive even more people from fire and flood areas. That’s especially true as rebuilding buildings will require contractors who are in greater demand. Maybe this leads to more manufactured housing because it is labor-efficient, centralized, ideally more affordable, and a proven product. And yet, a critical hurdle may be existing attitudes in the areas refugees are seeking refuge in. I expect the manufactured housing industry welcomes the opportunity to deliver tens of thousands of housing solutions, but homeowners associations and planning boards may say Not In My Back (or front or side) Yard. It’s almost enough to make a person think these states on the north american continent aren’t united. 

Regulations
Fewer regulations? Sure. Except that we may find that those regulations were there for a reason. Businesses that cheer their repeal may find joy in the short term, but in the long term they may find a declining customer base, and if proper governance returns, they may find themselves in lawsuits from damaged persons and organizations. I’d be less likely to invest in a company that only succeeds when the safeties are off. Regulations are much more whimsical than reality and can shift back within a few votes at a local review board meeting. 

The forecasts of chaos may be understated because chaos is hard to predict. Greenland? Really? How about fixing healthcare? 

The new rules or lack are confusing. For me, the easiest philosophy to consider is something I tweeted (X’ed?).

https://twitter.com/tetrimbath/status/1883222710874251337

Oligarchs will be oligarchs.
Not surprised that they only care about oligarchs,
and then they turn on each other.

Ultimate power ultimately destroys itself. We can get hit by the shrapnel, but there are also ways to duck or exit the field for a while. After they’ve cratered the landscape, we might find we’re like farmers after a battle, filling in massive divots, being wary of old mine fields, and yet returning to some semblance of our previous life. But in the meantime, maybe bring a periscope because it is good to know what’s happening, and some of the things that will happen will be incredible, as in, not to be believed.