I am so thankful for perspective, patience, and diversification. Two of my most recent darling stocks were suddenly jilted by the market. LUNR and QBTS dropped, -7% for LUNR and -36% for QBTS. 36%! Ouch. Eep. Oops. Oh well. That ‘Oh well’ is why I wasn’t responding the way some expected. I’m not saying I liked seeing it happen, but it is handy to check those numbers against their relative performance, be glad I am diversified, and be glad I have cash, just in case.

This week’s activity is particularly timely because I just produced and posted my Semi-Annual Portfolio Exercise. Check it for my unprofessional and unofficial opinion of the companies represented by my stocks. Things looked rosier way back then in 2024.

LUNR has actually had good news. They’re getting to launch their next lunar payload. Very cool. Very exciting, or at least a reason for hoping for a successful mission, as well as the aerospace companion of hoping it doesn’t do something like blow up or fall over. But the stock was down 7%. What’s with that? It is convenient to have one reason, but every stock has its price determined by a multitude of buyers and sellers with just as many motivations. One to pick from is whether a non-governmental CEO is more interested in Mars than the Moon. Whatever.

QBTS announced a 120% increase in revenues. Yay! And the stock went down 36% in one week. This one has an easier explanation. QBTS is selling quantum computing solutions now. Congratulations. A CEO of a different company stated that quantum computing won’t be real for another twenty years. Ah, dude. Check that calendar. A startup like QBTS has great news and a small voice compared to one person at a mega-corp, evidently. QBTS made a factual statement. The other guy made a guess. I’ll stick with the factual statement.

(Thanks, Google Finance.)

Look back a few days, only a few days to my post: A Week To Not Ignore – December 2024.

“A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.

November 29, 2024 – LUNR up  ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month
December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months
December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months”

Allow me to bring that up to date. 

January 10, 2025 – LUNR up ~326%, QBTS up ~388% in 6 months

Satisfactory?

They could crater. (And yes, I kept in the LUNR pun simply because it was easier than thinking of something to replace it.) They could also rebound. They could return to course. Despite financial analyses, both companies are operating (and creating) industries for which there is no benchmark. No one knows how big the lunar market will be. No one knows how big the quantum computing market will be. For some entertainment, browse the stock discussion boards and find analyses/estimates/guesses/wishes that are multiple times above today’s prices. (LUNR $17.87 , QBTS $5.77) LUNR is a ~$2.7B company. QBTS is a ~$1.5B company. How about $10B? No one knows. Everyone is guessing.

As an investor, my near-term hopes are already exceeded, and I’m willing to wait to see what happens as we slide further into that long-term future.

A recent commenter commented that some of these investments are “all-or-nothing”. Sure. I can understand that perspective. I wrote a book about personal finance, but I do not think many people should invest the way I do. For politeness, I’ll paraphrase a friend who called me a “wild-haired investor.” One thing I find fascinating is contrasting that comment to the ones who consider me stodgy because I invest instead of trade, and the one who described my overall strategy as “get-rich-slowly.” I figure this puts me in the middle. Have I ever described the guy who traded on margin and maxed out his credit card to do it? That’s how far away that edge is. (It didn’t work.)

I write this because, until an investor has experienced those ups and downs, it is too easy to have emotions bob around with every swing. I like the ups. I don’t like the downs. But I’ve been expecting a down because these ups have been so far up.

Let’s see where they go next. You see, I have these other stocks…