Well, that certainly wasn’t dull. A little over six months ago, I sold my small house near a tourist town on an island, and moved to a big tiny house near a tourist town on a peninsula. Hmm. That doesn’t sound like much of a change, but it is the easy part to see and visualize. A little over six months ago, I had a mortgage and a home equity loan with no money left for repairs and maintenance, and now am debt-free even as I spend money for improvements. Oh yeah, and I was able to buy back into the stock market. I’ve gone from 20 months of dwindling cash reserves to about three years of cash reserves to, since the election, at least a decade of cash reserves. Whew. Yay. Happy New Year.
Call it wisdom, or timing, or luck, or manifestation, or whatever. I didn’t sell my house at a peak (Zillow thinks it has gone up ~8% since then), but if I was going to have to sell, I wanted to sell without worrying about elections. My worry was that, if Social Security was purposely destabilized, the real estate market and the economy may both suffer. If millions of people couldn’t afford their homes, they may glut the market as they sold their biggest investment, their house, for cash. I was trapped by that in the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) and didn’t want to be trapped again. I found a tiny house that I liked well enough (MyTinyExperiment.com), gave myself enough months for my house to sell, it sold quickly, which meant I was clear and settled in (a non-trivial experience) in time for the election. Whew. I’m glad I did what I did.
And now I finally get to the stock stuff. The details are scattered throughout several months of this blog’s posts. I started with a portfolio barely large enough to buy a good used car, and took about a third of the house sale’s profits to buttress existing positions (GERN, MVIS, LCTX), bought new positions (LUNR, QBTS, SLDP), held one third for cash contingencies, and held one third for possible taxes. Wait a few months while I move in and learn that, as I suspected, I’d owned my home for long enough that I didn’t have to pay taxes on the sale. That third then went into buttressing those positions, plus adding another (GMGMF). Along the way, I sold stock in two companies that had great ideas but questionable executions (WNDW, SOLO).
But, how did it go?
GERN – I expected more of GERN because they finally received FDA approval for one of their cancer treatments – but the stock has drifted down. I wonder if management understood the technical and medical side, but not the business side. Or am I merely impatient. 2025 will decide that.
LCTX – Right behind GERN, and somewhat historically related, I thought the stock would progress because the treatments for spinal cord injuries and dry-eye macular degeneration were proceeding. But now, they’re threatened with delisting. How’d that happen? I worry.
MVIS – MVIS had great promise and didn’t deliver? Yep. As always -but there’s a recent update that I hope to remember to mention later in the post.
XOS/SOLO and WNDW – They tripped, fumbled, stumbled, and became nuisances more than investments. If they turn around the returns may be great, but I simplified by selling them. I do these semi-annual reviews for just such a reason. I felt the lottery would be more likely.
And that was for the stocks that I’ve held for years/decades.
Now for the stocks I’ve held for months.
LUNR – Their lunar lander fell over, but it did land. And then, they landed a multi-year, possibly >$4B NASA contract, and the stock did very well. And then Elon Musk was elected, rumors were born that NASA’s workload might go to more commercial companies, and the stock became exuberant. As I type this, the stock is up >400% in six months.
QBTS – Quantum computing is enticing, but the risks are high as there’s been too little evidence of its usefulness to properly value the stock, so it languished – and then Google produced an example and QBTS rose and rose. As I type, the stock is up >600% in six months. It rose enough that I sold off a fifth of my holding and reclaimed my original investment. The rest is profit.
SLDP, GMGMF – Solid batteries aren’t engaging for small talk, but more folks are driving electric vehicles, people want longer battery life, and more are aware that Lithium-ion batteries have some safety issues. If something can charge quicker, go farther, be safer, and not cost too much, it might be a competitor. Both companies are working on that. SLDP may be farther along (I think), and GMGMF has higher risk but some amazing possibilities from their graphene-based approach. GMGMF is too new in my portfolio. SLDP, however, had fallen until the middle of December. It has doubled since then.
I find it interesting that the stocks I’ve held for decades have been outperformed by the stocks I’ve held for months – and then MVIS almost doubled since mid-December as well because they might finally increase production on something, anything.
With performances like these, it is easy to get into dream mode (Dream. Invest. Live.). But as I mentioned in a previous post, I may also be witnessing irrational exuberance. I’ve seen it before, as well as its consequence. I’ve benefited from it before, but trusted too much to logic when it became irrational pessimism.
I am dreaming, and planning, and watching. Politics isn’t the only effect to watch in 2025. I think AI is far enough along to already be disruptive, and I see no reason for its reach and velocity to find a reasonable limit. Climate change isn’t changing its timeline because we continue to debate it, as if debating a house fire while standing inside it makes sense. Individuals and corporations are, however, acting, hence the desire and need for energy efficiency, decarbonization, and mobilization advances. I also think urbanization is swinging to de-urbanization because remote work, education, and living are more sustainable on an individual level, hence the demand for decentralized power and connectivity. These trends aren’t the only ones, but they’re busy now, and therefore worth watching.
Whew. Is that enough? Is that enough for a portfolio review? It is for me, and that’s who I do all of this for. So, while I do it, I might as well share it. I hope you’re find it useful, even if only as an example of what you can do for you.
And, I still buy lottery tickets.
Read on. And good luck.
Below are my synopses of my stocks.
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
D-Wave Quantum
QBTS (market cap is $2.44B was $0.183B)
D-Wave Quantum, more easily typed as its trading symbol QBTS is one of the leading quantum computer companies. Harken back to the early days of the PC when folks and organizations wondered what the rest of us would use a computer for. To me, quantum computing represents a larger shift across society than the PC did in its era. It is an unknowably large market. Another way of describing that: no one knows but many people hope – even if they don’t know why.
QBTS seems to be in the midst of clearing a hurdle to commercialization. The company has gone from lab tests and theoretical applications and benefits to real demonstrable results, but not to a consistent business model, yet. Is it on that cusp? Large cash flows have swept into the investment field for QBTS and its competitors. I don’t mind; that’s why I buy small overlooked companies. Frequently, I have to wait years for them to be found. This time, it was only a few months. I’m not complaining.
On the technical and conservative side, I’d feel more confident with verifiable use cases that lead to consistent revenues. That may take a few quarters because the large revenues are usually tied to large, conservative companies. Another possibility is a buyout from one of those trillion dollar companies. Another catalyst can be quantum computing’s interactions with AI (Artificial Intelligence). Both technologies are in a similar state. Coupling them is likely to have unintended consequences.
In the meantime, QBTS’ price has certainly been dynamic.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently, maxed out my personal arbitrary share limit, and then sold enough to recoup my initial investment.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Un2k2JFm7fE)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Intuitive Machines
LUNR (market cap is $2.77B was $0.404B)
Intuitive Machines, more readily typed as LUNR, is an aerospace company helping create the part of the space economy that deals with the Moon. They let others launch the rockets and LUNR deals with the satellites, landers, and such. The sky’s the limit? Ha! They’re beyond the sky. They’re also literally on a frontier that is mostly empty, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. So far they’re proving themselves through several successful missions, and have been treated with greater grace than I expected after their lunar lander fell over.
I spent just enough years working on rockets and satellites to appreciate their efforts, many of their risks, and have a hint of their potential. My ultra-short synopsis for starting conversations is that, while not exactly the same, LUNR may be for the moon what SpaceX is for everything. Note ‘may’. Rockets blow up. Landers fall over. Equipment breaks and can’t be repaired. But/And they’re actually doing it, not just talking about it.
One twist from the US Presidential election is that at least some of NASA’s role may be shifted to commercial vendors. That may explain some of the enthusiasm for LUNR’s stock. I expect chaos. I also recognize that, if LUNR’s management is thinking ahead as I am, LUNR’s business opportunities may suddenly become broader. It may not be something for them to act on, but it should be worth creating contingency plans.
Regardless of politics, I invested in LUNR because I have been a fan of space commercialization since 1976. (Go L5!) I hoped it wouldn’t take this long, but I’m glad if I can be a part of it at least this way.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the industry advances.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/fzVaEu7mty0)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Solid Power
SLDP (market cap is $0.341B was $0.292B)
Solid Power is a company that makes solid batteries. Simple enough? Many batteries in electric vehicles and devices use a liquid to conduct the chemistry and hence the electricity. While Lithium-ion batteries are ubiquitous, they are also fragile and dangerous. Solid batteries are more robust and safer. In my opinion, the technology that enables today’s Li-ion batteries is due for a generational shift. One option is to go to solid state, hence my investment in SLDP.
Solid Power is using sulfide-based electrolytes. I’d like to claim that I understand the electro-chemical nuances, but I will admit to ignorance. That is one reason I conduct this semi-annual portfolio, to highlight to myself deficiencies in my knowledge of the company that warrant more research from me. My assessment of the likelihood of a shift is based on some of my tracking of SLDP’s news, but also because I am now aware of the impressive number of startups working on the next generation of batteries. SLDP may be the best, or not. But, are they good enough to become profitable? The number of batteries required for our mobilized and decentralized civilization suggests a market large enough for several suppliers.
I will continue to Hold, and I will research further as well as possibly make at least one other investment in the industry.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the technology advances, hopefully to profitability because this could enable greater sustainability in my estimation. I was about to buy more near the end of 2024, hesitated, and missed what looks like a good opportunity.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Xs2kxJgHr0I)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Graphene Manufacturing Group
GMGMF (market cap is $0.062B)
Graphene Manufacturing Group is developing higher-performance batteries, as well as other products partly enabled by incorporating graphene into the product. Ideally, graphene allows higher densities or smaller packing than standard lithium-ion batteries.
To me, lithium-ion was obviously an industry-changing advance, but is also a technology ready for a generational change. They’re proven the adoptability of mobile electrical devices in everything from laptops to planes, trains, and automobiles. Their use has also revealed problems with politics, supply chains, special materials, waste disposal, safety, and performance issues like range anxiety. Solid batteries and advances like the use of graphene may be that next generation.
GMGMF is small, but with good exposure and at least some commercial success. They are also an Australian company, which may be less problematic than Chinese companies, but may also be more problematic for US investors.
DISCLOSURE I tend to LTBH, but only bought GMGMF recently. Circa 2023, I produced a video about the company on my One Company One Story YouTube channel.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $2.14B was $2.52B)
Geron (GERN) is an advanced biotech company that has recently (finally?) received FDA approval for their first treatment, a telomere-based technology for treating a type of blood cancer. They have other treatments in their pipeline, but my main interest is this first treatment because of the FDA approval. The approval enables GERN to more confidently advance other treatments, ideally in unmet areas with little competition.
My main concern is that I expected the approval to more immediately find use, acceptance, and subsequently revenues. Not yet. Is it just a matter of patience? One possibility is that the company has been in development mode for so long that they are having a slower or more difficult time transitioning to marketing, treatments, – and the revenues they need for sustainability. Another possibility may be a reliance on a buyout. For humanitarian reasons I hope all that is required is patience. For investment reasons I hope they advance the treatment and the company by remaining independent.
My experience with the first occurrence of Dendreon (DNDN, https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=dndn) dampens my enthusiasm. They had an FDA-approved cancer vaccine, were actively undermined, the bad guys were found guilty, but the shareholders lost their money, or at least I did. Hopefully, that won’t happen this time.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more after selling my house.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
https://youtu.be/su1AMjPEkLI )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Lineage Cell Therapeutics
LCTX (market cap is $0.110B was $0.165B)
Lineage Cell Therapuetics (LCTX) is a leading edge biotech primarily focused on treating spinal cord injuries and macular visual degeneration via stem cells. They have demonstrated at least partial success in both and have been making progress towards applying for FDA approval. Even their partial success exceeds competitors’ accomplishments, as I understand it. Because so few treatments exist, if any, there is hope that the FDA process may be expedited – but bureaucracies can be quite conservative.
I am encouraged by the progress, but dismayed by the lull in advancing the narrative and any news from the regulatory authorities. I am discouraged by the significant drop in the share price and wonder if there is significant unreported news, or is the investing community witnessing a short episode unrelated to the company’s progress?
DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014) which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting. I recently purchased additional shares from cash from a real estate sale.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
https://youtu.be/xQ5Q4uWoQ4o )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.287B was $0.213B)
I’ve been Holding and watching MVIS for over two decades. Pardon me as a copy&paste seems most efficient. (Some edits added, but nothing signficant because nothing seems to have changed except details.)
Another era of MVIS doldrums. Very little new news relative to the previous years/decades.
It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more (but very little because so little has changed.).
“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?” Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope…” (circa 2021).
MicroVision is a electronics component manufacturer developing, and to some extent selling, elecro-optical units based on a chip-sized oscillating mirror. It is a simple and ingenious design defended by a long list of patents. Currently the greatest public hope for the company are the LiDAR sensors targeted at the autonomous vehicle market. MicroVision’s advantage is based on the chip’s scalability, the lack of pixel-sized constraints (as compared to LEDs), lower power requirements, and small package.
Before LiDAR, the company targeted short-throw projectors, projectors embedded in smartphones, augmented reality eyewear (see Hololens and more), as well as game controllers, bar code scanners, and orthoscopes. And probably more. The company has always operated under constraints from NDAs, the need to protect competition sensitive product developments, and some exclusive contracts that were ill-suited for the company, in retrospect.
It is easy to imagine that the company wasn’t persistent enough in pursuing some of those products as they were first movers in those fields. Now, competition has caught up. Also, corporate hopes pinned on singular products languished if the product or customer failed to deliver. Each CEO also resteers the company to distinguish their era from the previous one. The effect has been for the company to be seen as a tech test bench play shop that is dependent on demos and customers rather than faith in the company’s products to lead to financial success.
I remember when… Once upon a time, profitability was described as a possibility for 2003. (Previous notes had a note also suggesting 2023. Irony?)
As stated above; “Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?”
If it succeeds, its rise may be magnificent, which is one reason to own shares now. My shares are now old enough to have graduated college, worked for a few years, then gone back for a Masters, started a family, had kids, and watch them enter school. How much longer will it take for something positive, significant, and quantifiable to finally happen?
For even more details, follow my blog’s tags for MicroVision and MVIS, which reach back a decade.
https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/microvision/
https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/mvis/
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. Oddly enough, a cash infusion from another source and the depressed price made it easy and cheap to buy back in, not because I know anything new but because the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance which might include MVIS; and because some day, some day…
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
https://youtu.be/NJRgHJBW3M8 )
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 