Really. I was going to take this week off. But how could I ignore the stock market this week? Usually, at best, there’d be a Santa Clause rally, which I never believed in. This year saw a rally around the holiday, which seemed more like an accelerated reprise of the Internet Bubble’s irrational exuberance. (Is the Internet Bubble so long ago that many don’t remember it? Wow.) This is a good time to capture my thoughts for me and for anyone else who is interested. Times like these are surprisingly easy to forget. 

Last week’s post (Done With Stock Shopping – Not) was also supposed to be a quiet week, but some stocks got busy, so I thought I should mention them. 

A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.

November 29, 2024 – LUNR up  ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month
December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months
December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months

OK. OK. I can rationalize that away as a continuance of the election impact. Maybe aerospace will shift from government to commercial because Musk is running things. Maybe quantum computing will surge as defense money goes into tech, or because Google Research did some good work, or, – it’s all a guess. Not complaining. Took enough profits out of QBTS to recoup my initial investment. May do the same with LUNR in a bit, but…

If that was all there was to the story, then there isn’t much need to document an extrapolation of expectations.

And then this week happened to more of my stocks.
Two biotechs didn’t do well: GERN -7.97%, LCTX -4.42%. But that’s the same trend as before. (Come on, folks, you’re making progress. Why doesn’t anyone seem to care?)
I already mentioned LUNR and QBTS, but there they are with my other stocks from this week.
GMGMF up 8.79%
LUNR up 48.19%
MVIS up 60.60%
QBTS up 68.54%
SLDP up 88.50%

MVIS is on that list. MVIS! Long-time readers can know how rare that is. SLDP, another one known for languishing, relatively, was busy. Most of these moves are on barely any news. 

Cue a tiny bell ringing from the historical backroom of my stored memories. This looks like exuberance (action without solid justification) within a normally stodgy environment (almost irrational). The previous time I heard much about irrational exuberance was when the Fed chairman was worried about an unstably optimistic investment community just prior to the Internet Bubble bursting. Uh. Uh oh?

Mega-corps have been becoming more mega, even reaching valuations measured in trillions. We may even see the anointing of our first trillionaire. 

Some scenarios:
> That rising tide is finally lifting all those boats. (But is there enough wealth for everything to rise?)
> Folks teetering at the top of that crest are realizing it may be time to trade ballistic stocks for smaller, overlooked companies that are yet to launch. (Sell high, then buy low is an old standard.)
> I’m brilliant or lucky or finally about to be vindicated by having my stocks found. (Ha! Well, maybe a little, and hopefully more than enough. A person can dream.)

I don’t know which scenario is most likely and don’t expect to know. Current politics has been highly irrational, and trying to evaluate an irrational mob using rational criteria is irrational. When chaos reigns, don’t act as if you are in control. But don’t ignore it either.

Not ignoring it is why I’m writing this, even though there’s a dance in a little bit and I might want to get ready for it.

Chaos theory is called that because, even if there’s an underlying pattern, what we see can seem chaotic and unpredictable. The stock market has always been thus, and now maybe moreso.

This is happening as I prepare My Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. Usually, I can start preparing it weeks in advance because stocks move slowly as brokers hit the holidays. The early work I did this year will have to be redone. OK. That’s part of being a responsible investor.

The good news I’ve seen as I refresh my thoughts is that there is good news for GERN, LCTX, LUNR, MVIS, QBYS, and SLDP. I’ll chronicle it in the Review. Whether from company performance or irrational exuberance or whatever, my personal finance situation has improved dramatically. The enabling event was selling my house (which produced cash), which got me out of debt (as I traded debt payments for rent on land for my tiny house), which freed up capital (which was well-timed, evidently.) 

Pardon me as I leave any narrative structure behind to capture something I alluded to last week, implicitly. Nine months ago, I had 20 months of reserves before drastic action might be required. I didn’t want to wait too long because there was enough turmoil in the world that the economy might shift enough that selling my house and paying my debts might become much more difficult. I am glad I did what I did, when I did, and how I did it. Being house-trapped before the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was traumatic. After selling my home, I had ~3.5 years of reserves, a great relief that is demonstrably healthy. The stock market’s actions this week led to an estimated >8 years of reserves. It might be more by now. That financial transition is requiring a non-trivial emotional transition. Over a decade of scarcity trained me into reactions that I am now unwinding, partly thanks to a mental health counselor. The rest of the task is up to me. It isn’t fashionable to say, but money changes mindsets. I know poor people who don’t want to hear about someone else’s good fortune. I know rich people who don’t want to acknowledge that poverty exists unless they can blame the poor. We are a dysfunctional society. Within a short time, I’ve been riding that roller coaster through America’s wealth classes. I haven’t reached the highest highs or the lowest lows, but I could see them from where I was. Now, as the ride progresses, I recognize the difficulty in finding a balance within this world we created. Stay tuned. I don’t know where it’s going, how we’ll get there, and what I’ll do along the way, but this is a time to be aware, responsive, responsible, and compassionate.