My timing could’ve been better. Coulda. That idea gets used after opportunities get missed. I was considering investing some of my cash, but wanted to wait until the uncertainties of the election were at least partly resolved. Evidently, I am not the only one. (Election Impact – 2024) Parts of the market are booming. (Will they bust?) Welcome to my return to the classic investor choice: buy, sell, hold.

If you want a deeper dive on my investing strategy read Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote in 2008, shortly before my portfolio did very well (thank you, DNDN & AMSC), which was followed by two gangs of white-collar criminals drastically damaged the companies as well as tens of thousands of prostate cancer victims. The criminals were found guilty, I lost 80% of my net worth, and thus began my perfect storm of bad luck. I’m planning a sequel as my finances have begun to recover.

And recover my portfolio is doing. It has to more than triple to recover, but the optimist in me is optimistic. That’s how that works. Ironically, despite holding onto three stocks for decades (GERN, MVIS, LCTX*), my portfolio has benefited from two stocks I bought earlier this year (QBTS, LUNR). Evidently, I shoulda bought more. Shoulda, another word for missed opportunities.

My book has my process, but the most recent exercise was earlier this year (2024), Time To Buy But What. 

Every time I review my possibilities, is different. This time, the timing was affected my my conservatism in making sure I had enough to pay taxes from the house sale (zero, because I met the exemption criteria), and by my desire to avoid the heightened chaos around the election, and because I was busy finishing my book, Fire Race. (Available at Amazon.)

Election history is written in many other places. Here’s a portion of my stock selection chronology, a work in progress.

I like to maintain a list of small companies that are public and that have the potential to make significant, positive, and disruptive impacts on society. For a while, I even posted monthly videos of my opinion of various small companies (on YouTube One Company One Story – and planned to be relaunched soon-ish.) Simply, I collected a few such lists and loaded them into a Watchlist in Google Finance. Here’s the long list of about three dozen companies.

Okay. Winnow that down. I want small companies (ideally under $2B, but not under $100M), with what I consider to be positive prospects, ideally local (US or at least North America), and if they have good financials, then good. Oh yeah, and I have to like the company’s story. Personal finance is easier to research when I care about what they are trying to do.

Here’s when the first shocker came in. Several had already popped up after the election. It happened to those two of mine that I mentioned. They weren’t alone. Not all were so lucky and continue to languish just like some of mine. Google Finance is organized well enough that I was able to check on 36 stocks in about an hour and a half. My style of investing doesn’t require much research because I hang onto stocks for a long time, but it does require some effort and occasional concentration.

That was a quick edit. The number of prospective candidates reduced by about half. 

Two familiar stocks made the list, AMSC & RRGB, which I’ve owned and sold. 

Each iteration tightens the criteria. It is time to get picky. Some were tossed because I feared that they will be challenged by global politics, like companies having to deal with tariffs. I avoid military because I’ve seen how they are as profitable as they are. Long story. In early iterations, I check yearly trends. Now, I check lifetime trends in the stocks. Are they profitable, or soon to be, or have a good reason not to be so far? Do I think their product is too niche, or about to be out-dated or out-competed?

That brought the list down to five: 

• AMSC – Energy efficiency in power grids is a massive market. Making a grid more effective can mean not having to build another power plant. And they use superconductors!, though I think the competitive advantage has been lost. I owned them a decade or so ago, so there’s familiarity. 
• FREYR – They’re working on large scale solar power storage systems, which I suspect is a growing market. And yet, while they’re on the list, my objective reasoning is not encouraging my subjective reasoning. They should be good. Why am I not enthused? Pay attention to intuition.
• GMGMF – The trailing F is the key. This company is in Australia. Tariffs and such can go either way, but I’m encouraged by anyone who can create batteries that are Not lithium-ion. They might also be about to become profitable.
• SHLS – Here’s another one that has encouraging numbers, yet I have doubts. I get the impression that they are focused on balancing electrical loads, which is not sexy, but does that matter? I ask.
• SSYS – 3-D printing is becoming an industry norm. I’m a fan from my days at Boeing where I got to work with one of the early models. Cool. But that was 25 years ago, and the printers are not common in homes. Is the market big enough?

Even typing this out is part of the process. As I type, I listen to myself trying to make this one fit or find a reason to skip that one. Personal finance is personal. I’m living a life that is me. What fits in my life? What would feel like hypocrisy? What would feel like a fit? What is frivolous? What is accurate yet dull? 

I will post this before I draw a conclusion because my specific result is not as important as providing an insight into one person’s process. It’s Friday at sunset (horizon rise). I won’t buy any stock until Monday morning at the earliest. In the meantime, there’s a weekend. There are opportunities to sleep in as a storm blows by, a dance to enjoy, and a friend’s book to lightly review. Stocks are important, but so are so many other things, too.

Bought
GMGMF $0.429 12/9/2024
GMGMF $0.423 12/10/2024
GMGMF $0.467 12/11/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/12/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/13/2024