I must be brilliant! My portfolio is up 20% in November! So much for expecting an annualized 7%. What? It’s not because I did something on purpose? Welcome to an unintended consequence of the 2024 US election. 

I’m not alone. One person was embarrassed because their portfolio surged even though their candidate lost. Should they sell their stock in protest? Should they celebrate the fact that selling would take cash from a person or organization that might be hoarding it? Would they be hoarding it instead? Don’t overthink it. Unintended consequences happen.

My portfolio rose that much, but almost all of the gain was from two stocks: LUNR, QBTS. LUNR is possibly a play by investors rushing to space stocks because Elon Musk is going to do – something. (Is he an unintended consequence for this era?) QBTS is possibly a play by investors loving high-tech that must be good because it is so high-tech that they can’t understand it. LUNR might have a launch delay, which usually means a revenue delay. QBTS is a burgeoning quantum computing company, which is another way of saying that someday they might make a lot of money. Hey. I like both companies. I bought stock in both, but their values pre- and post-election changed 20%. Either the rockets were going to fly, or the qubits were going to compute, or not. Votes don’t matter to powerful reactions and sensitive circuits. LUNR is up 96%. QBTS is up 165%.

This surge is not universal. Four of my other stocks were down despite having news. GERN passed FDA approval for their blood cancer treatment. LCTX is making progress in treating spinal cord injuries and a kind of macular degeneration (an eye ailment.) MVIS – oh, just skip it. MVIS is decades of unintended consequences. SLDP is making progress with solid batteries, and possibly more important is the fact that the need for something better than what we’ve got becomes more apparent. (Note: I think SLDP reduces the need for certain rare materials from China, so maybe there’s a play there?)

Play. I’m glad I unintentionally used that word. Investing has an aura of diligent research, decades of tracking progress, and deep considerations. Ha. Sometimes, the market chases whatever looks bright and shiny. If you’re the one holding the bauble they want, you get to decide whether to Buy, Sell, or Hold.

I’m holding all of my shares. I think every stock I own has a “present value of future revenues discounted for risk” that is probably higher than its current market value. I think the investment community might be right to buy LUNR and QBTS because they have great potential in my opinion. Notice the word ‘opinion’. I haven’t conducted a mathematical analysis more sophisticated than noting their market capitalizations. Do they have the potential to be a multi-billion dollar company but ‘only’ worth a few hundred million? Then the reward might, might be worth the risk.

Perfect storms of bad luck will happen. I am one example of that. But unintended consequences can be positive surprises. Luck, good and bad, is more influential than most pundits will admit.

This surprising good news is unrealized, as in ‘unrealized gains’. Some have suggested that I sell. On occasion, they’ve been right. (See MVIS in early 2021 for that example.) On more occasions, I’ve missed out on greater gains by not holding. The most I’ve ever lost on a stock was 100%. Just picking one from memory was selling FFIV at ~$44 after buying it $5. Today, it closed at $250. Ain’t personal finance and investing in stocks fun?

Realistically, I’ve been through such swings before. I’ve found that a handy celebratory outlet is to let me gift me a small gift. If my portfolio goes up $10,000, I get to buy something for ~$100. Sometimes, something as simple as a pair of winter sweatpants or a fancy dinner out finds that balance between celebration and ‘don’t spend it all in one place’. (Hmm. My ten-year-old computer mouse may finally get replaced with an upgrade.)

We’re entering an era of unintended consequences. Politics, climate change, artificial intelligence, social unrest, the decentralization and electrification of our energy supply, and the possibility of a Digital Singularity all can effect changes before the next US Presidential election cycle. Fluky unintended consequences will be worth watching because they may not last long. November’s spike may abate, but I’m not going to chase the market. I am invested in our future. I plan to sell someday, but not while I think the stocks have significantly further to go. I’m also willing to be proved wrong if someone is silly enough to give me enough – and pardon me as my mind drifts off imagining scenarios in which that can happen. Hey, unintended consequences, you know?

(Reminder: My semi-annual portfolio review is due in a month. Stay tuned. And take care, too.)