Well, at least it has been an eventful half-year. Good news, a lack of news, new news outlets, and life improved even without the effects of stocks.
I turned 65! Yay! Or on some mornings, ugh. Hey, they’re right. Growing older isn’t for sissies. I also sold my small cottage in the touristy part of Whidbey Island and moved to a tinier house near the touristy city of Port Townsend. The list of reasons is long. It has been bittersweet because it was hard to leave the island and the only house that has felt like home, but that sale meant I am now debt-free. I’m also view-free, relatively, but a one-mile walk changes that. 65 also means Medicare, which I have yet to figure out, and signing up for new doctors and dentists and all that stuff. That task is taking longer.
Ah, but the tasks have proved to me the value of not being poor. Having cash in the bank has improved my mood. The world actually looks better. There are hints that I will have a future to look forward to rather than a drudgery of feeding the debt payments. Ideologues make that sound academic, but it is real and definitely impacts health. Being poor is expensive. The poor are more likely to feel stress. Stress is likely to impact their health. And they may not be able to afford the care, which makes them less healthy, more stressed, and the cycle repeats. I broke that cycle. We’ll see if that improvement manifests itself soon.
But let’s talk stocks. Much of the money from my house sale went into the stock market. I bolstered positions in GERN and LCTX. Skipped MVIS because MVIS is acting like MVIS and not acting like the promised MVIS. And I diversified by buying stock in LUNR (space!), QBTS (quantum!), and SLDP (better batteries!). Of course, recently, I bought stock in WNDW (solar! but management issues) and SOLO (/XOS, EVs!, but the startup didn’t.)
It is 2024, so as much as I avoid commenting on politics, politics played a role in selling my house, getting out of debt, moving off an island, and generally planning for the future. Hey! And I’m now closer to Canada! Just in case. My bigger worry is Social Security. My expenses exceeded my income when I lived on Whidbey. I took an early Social Security because I had to. The same with my Boeing pension. Those two, combined with occasional jobs, meant I occasionally had a surplus, but that was temporary. If Social Security went away, it was easy to imagine many people having to sell their homes, which would make it harder to sell mine. It would also impact the job market as many people would desperately take whatever job was available. That would cascade into unintentional consequences. Intentional or not, cash will make it easier to ride around and through those issues. Being in debt at the same time might work if there was something like a debt jubilee, but I figured the odds of that are slim.
Ideally, I’d own a nice house and the land, but in the meantime, I own the house and rent the land. And I invest. As usual, my stocks are in companies that can significantly, quantifiably, and positively disrupt their industries. A 10% rise in my portfolio will be nice, but inconsequential. A 100% rise would be a great easing, and enough in a stretch to buy land and move me and my house to it. A 1000% rise, well, that’s what dreams are made of.
Below are my synopses of my stocks. GERN (Geron) received FDA approval for their blood cancer treatment. In the most recent six months, the stock is up 97%, and it has yet to begin the main treatment campaign. LCTX may only be a year or two behind. And, of course, MVIS will succeed ‘any day/week/month/quarter/year/decade’.
And another, of course, AI can disrupt everything.
And, I still buy lottery tickets.
Read on. And good luck.
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
D-Wave Quantum
QBTS (market cap is $0.183B)
Pardon me as I steal from myself (via my YouTube channel’s description of D-Wave).
For simplicity, I’ll refer to D-Wave Quantum Inc. by its trading symbol, QBTS.
QBTS deserves an explanation. Quantum computing is a revolutionary computer architecture and business approach. Traditional computers use bits. Quantum computers use quantum bits, q-bits, (QBTS, get it?) devices that trap and use quantum particles and concepts. Quantum computing operates on probabilities and the reality that quantum computers can consider two truths are once; something can temporarily both Yes and No, effectively.
As problems become more complex digital models can be forced to consider all possibilities and their combinations one at a time. Model something complex like the planet’s weather and massive computers with millions, billions, (trillions?) of transistors are required. Quantum computers can resolve the possibilities with much fewer processors (a couple of thousand instead of billions), and the work faster, and do the work without requiring another era of mainframes.
Ideally, such machines should be much more efficient at modeling messy things like climates and stock markets.
As a result, IF QBTS succeeds, THEN it may be overlooked temporarily as investors try to understand such a complicated and esoteric technology and business model. At least within the human part of the investment world, it is understandable why an analyst is more likely to research coffee rather than high-tech.
Is ignorance keeping QBTS’s stock price down? I only see data from August 2022, despite the company being founded in 1999. That’s a long time starting up to get to be a start up. Alone, quantum computer could become an old overnight success; and, ironically, could possibly fade as nothing more than a technological curiosity.
Coincidences happen. Welcome artificial intelligence timely entrance. I am sure researchers in both fields are aware of each other. Each involves revolutionary implications and consequences. Each is basically struggling with finding sustainable and profitable business models. Together their capabilities could be mutually amplified in ways we can’t imagine. And ‘can’t imagine’ is one of those things that are scaring some people.
Unknowns are risks. Rewards are not guaranteed. The adage about risk versus reward is heightened. Companies like D-Wave (QBTS) intrigue me because of the technical challenge, the unknowable potential, and the celebration of decades of work from persistent humans.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the technology advances, hopefully to profitability because this could enable greater sustainability in my estimation.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Un2k2JFm7fE)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Intuitive Machines
LUNR (market cap is $0.404B)
Pardon me as I steal from myself (via my YouTube channel’s description of Intuitive Machines).
Intuitive Machines which sounds more an AI or robotics company, but may be hinted at better by its trading symbol, LUNR (LUNaR, get it?) They’re doing moon stuff, and more. They are offering many of the services necessary for lunar exploration: transportation (after launch), Earth-based space communications, Moon-centered communications, a hopping rover, and more.
According to NASA;
“The Intuitive Machines 1 (IM-1, TO2-IM) mission objective is to place a lander, called Nova-C, on the crater rim of Malapert A near the south pole of the Moon. The commercially built lander will carry five NASA payloads and commercial cargo. Launch is currently scheduled for June 2023.” – NASA
It landed on February 29, 2024; then, tipped over. In the world of aerospace, that’s a success. In the land of everyday expectations, that could be considered a failure, or at least comical.
This is a good example of the early commercialization of space. It is starting with NASA contracts; which is more civil than commercial. I will be hoping for true commercialization which will be business-to-business.
They are attempting something complex and impressive. But then, Space-X’s idea of recovering and reusing rocket stages seemed audacious.
The stock’s ride has been wild. Within the recent few months the range has been from almost $2 to over $13. Rocket analogies are allowed in both directions.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the industry advances.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/fzVaEu7mty0)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Solid Power
SLDP (market cap is $0.292B)
Pardon me as I steal from myself (via my YouTube channel’s description of Solid Power).
Hello, solid power batteries. In Solid Power’s case, they are using sulfide-based electrolytes. They are solid, which is safer than lithium-ion. Evidently, they should provide higher energy, and cost less than li-ion. ‘Should’ is the key term because new technologies always have a phase during their initial introduction when theory and ‘should’ meet practicality and reality. Witness some of the stumbles that autonomous vehicles are encountering as they ‘should’ not be causing video-worthy traffic jams, et al.
Solid Power is making product and making money. Sulfide-based technologies are less sensitive to geopolitical tensions over precious metals. As or if they prove their technology, their work should become better known. They are not the only alternative battery technology. (How about graphene batteries, which are based on carbon, which is an element that is also incredibly more available?)
SLDP has been trending up in the recent six months, but it is far below it’s 2021 peaks of over $12. Revenues are up, but net income is dramatically negative. Hopefully, (not an appealing strategy) that’s the build-out prior to the build-up.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the technology advances, hopefully to profitability because this could enable greater sustainability in my estimation.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Xs2kxJgHr0I)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $2.52B was $1.15B)
Geron (GERN) has been working on highly innovative biotech for decades. Decades! Finally, the FDA has officially approved Geron’s blood cancer treatment. They will probably start trying to treat other types of cancer, too. One estimate is that the treatment will cost over $100,000 which is large compared to many drugs, but is meeting an unmet need, and it may be a lower overall cost. One bit of specifity is that patients may now experience “24 weeks of freedom from the burden of red blood cell transfusions”. (https://trimbathcreative.net/2024/06/07/geron-approved/)
Years, decades ago, Geron had a diversified portfolio of innovative and somewhat controversial treatments that could fight cancer by convincing certain cells to die, and fight auto-immune disorders by allowing certain cells to live. From that broad range of possibilities they’ve narrowed down to blood cancer.
The good news for stockholders is that within the previous six months the stock has risen from ~$2 to ~$5. Such news can generate greater premiums, but dilution has so reduced the value of the shares that the premuim may already be built in.
If the treatment can be applied to other ailments, then a multiplier may be appropriate, but the investing market may wait to see if the medical industry accepts and encourages its use.
This is also the era of hyperbolic claims of price appreciation. If there is irrational exuberance, I may sell at least some shares.
My experience with the first occurrence of Dendreon (DNDN, https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=dndn) dampens my enthusiasm. They had an FDA-approved cancer vaccine, were actively undermined, the bad guys were found guilty, but the shareholders lost their money, or at least I did. Hopefully, that won’t happen this time.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more after selling my house. I could buy more, but I expect I’ll wait until I hear about Geron’s plans for expansion.
(From my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/su1AMjPEkLI )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Lineage Cell Therapeutics
LCTX (market cap is $0.165B was $0.191B)
Lineage Cell Therapeutics is a leading edge biotech company developing a variety of treatments, particularly (from my investing perspective) macular degeneration and repairing damaged nerves. Their use of stem cells was considered radical a couple of decades ago. Now, they have treatments that have progressed to modified Phase 2 trials.
Phase 2 is usually years from FDA approval, but in my opinion, their treatments are significant enough and the unmet need is large enough that there may be pressure for the FDA to approve at least some earilier use. But, I am an optimist and a dreamer (and I’ve felt this way for years, but ‘feeling’ is subjective, not objective.)
(Mostly a copy&paste for my biotech investments with the names changed)
One hurdle with biotechs is making sure the treatment is reliable, effective, safe, and commercially viable. Another hurdle with innovative treatments is gaining FDA approval in a reasonable time. Treatments for unmet needs have pressure for early approval. Innovative treatments have pressures encouraging the FDA to be cautious. We may soon see how the technical, political, medical, and societal pressures affect LCTX’s treatment and LCTX’s viability and LCTX”s performance.
Typical of innovative treatments of such critical conditions, very few patients have been treated. This can lower confidence in the results, but I have been encouraged by what I’ve seen, heard, and read. I am also Not a medical professional, so my assessments rely on larger perspectives (e.g. market, competition, etc.)
I don’t expect LCTX’s stock to steadily appreciate, but when it does it may happen so quickly that it might be too late to buy in.
DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014) which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting. I recently purchased additional shares.
(From my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/xQ5Q4uWoQ4o )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.213B was $0.505B)
Another era of MVIS doldrums. Very little new news relative to the previous years/decades.
It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more (but very little because so little has changed.).
“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?” Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope…” (circa 2021).
MicroVision is a electronics component manufacturer developing, and to some extent selling, elecro-optical units based on a chip-sized oscillating mirror. It is a simple and ingenious design defended by a long list of patents. Currently the greatest public hope for the company are the LiDAR sensors targeted at the autonomous vehicle market. MicroVision’s advantage is based on the chip’s scalability, the lack of pixel-sized constraints (as compared to LEDs), lower power requirements, and small package.
Before LiDAR, the company targeted short-throw projectors, projectors embedded in smartphones, augmented reality eyewear (see Hololens and more), as well as game controllers, bar code scanners, and orthoscopes. And probably more. The company has always operated under constraints from NDAs, the need to protect competition sensitive product developments, and some exclusive contracts that were ill-suited for the company, in retrospect.
It is easy to imagine that the company wasn’t persistent enough in pursuing some of those products as they were first movers in those fields. Now, competition has caught up. Also, corporate hopes pinned on singular products languished if the product or customer failed to deliver. Each CEO also resteers the company to distinguish their era from the previous one. The effect has been for the company to be seen as a tech test bench play shop that is dependent on demos and customers rather than faith in the company’s products to lead to financial success.
Forward Looking Statements suggested at least some profits in 2023, but those weren’t expected to reach cash-flow positive – yet. (Comment from mid-2024 = Ha!)
As stated above; “Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?”
If it succeeds, its rise may be magnificent, which is one reason to own shares now. My shares are now old enough to have graduated college, worked for a few years, then gone back for a Masters, started a family, had kids, and watch them enter school. How much longer will it take for something positive, significant, and quantifiable to finally happen?
For even more details, follow my blog’s tags for MicroVision and MVIS, which reach back a decade.
https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/microvision/
https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/mvis/
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I doubt I’ll buy more because of the rest of my financial situation, and intend to hold until much higher price targets are reached.
(From my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/NJRgHJBW3M8 )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
SolarWindow
WNDW (market cap is $0.012B was $0.021B)
SolarWindow has an attractive idea: turn windows into solar panels. Solar panels don’t have to be opaque slabs stuck on a roof. Modern houses and office buildings can be more window than wall; so, grab that power! Being able to use such panels for greenhouses also enriches nurseries, gardens, and farms. Farms particularly benefit because they are more likely to be off the grid.
Alas, some management mishaps meant the company had trouble reporting its finances. That cratered the market’s confidence. Supposedly at least some of those issues have been resolved. Now, the company seems to be returning to its previous operations that involved hopes and promises but insufficient sales. Losses are shrinking, but that could also be from reducing operations.
The stock price is so depressed that there isn’t much to be gained by selling, except maybe as a tax loss, but I have too few gains for the losses to balance against. Daily volume is so low that even small purchases can shift the share price, which discourages open buying. SolarWindow isn’t the only company working on transparent panels, which may mean that they lose to competition while the regain their progress. Staying tuned.
Down to two employees (according to Google Finance). Ugh.
DISCLOSURE
Usually LTBH but only bought in because another of my stocks was bought out (just as they were becoming profitable). I bought in to redistribute the funds and increase my diversification.
(From my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/OHjlrqVDztI )
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Electrameccanica – now XOS
XOS (market cap is $0.054B as XOS was $0.040B as SOLO)
SOLO dropped. XOS bought them. I visited XOS’ web site and get the impression that they are providing both goods and services, particularly for the step-van market. In particular, their writing suggests they help businesses that are intimidated by the EV tech, or are busy enough with normal operations that they’d prefer some help.
I am a fan of EVs, but I haven’t found a significant aspect to XOS’ business model that makes they unique. I’m still trying to understand why a customer would choose XOS over the competition. Research happens.
My shares are worth less than I spent at the farmer’s grocery. I’ll hold the shares because miracles happen. So can selling for the loss.
DISCLOSURE
Usually LTBH but only bought in because another of my stocks was bought out (just as they were becoming profitable). I bought in to redistribute the funds and increase my diversification.
(From my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/DFLvNCV3zAE )
For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.
The following links are to various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses.
“Gold mines produce far more rubble than gold.
It is easy to complain about the rubble.
Ignore the rubble.
Pay attention to the gold.”
Gold mines produce far more rubble than gold. Ignore the rubble. Pay attention to the gold. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen.
I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.
Investor Village (widest range of boards)
Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)
Reddit (Many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices. I do not post directly on Reddit because it is Reddit, as in, I read it. But in this case, I wrote it. So, I defer unless specifically requested.)
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 