GERN Achieves FDA Approval
Ah, investing in biotech. Welcome to a mostly-incomprehensible title for a major announcement.

“Geron Announces FDA Approval of RYTELO™ (imetelstat), a First-in-Class Telomerase Inhibitor, for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Lower-Risk MDS with Transfusion-Dependent Anemia”
– Business Wire

Silly me. That’s one media outlet’s version. Let’s see what’s on the company’s web site.

One has too much information. One has too little. Come on, folks. Geron (GERN) has been working on highly innovative biotech for decades. Decades! They can now start treating certain type of blood cancer, with the possibility of treating other things, too. Congratulations. In my case, it is also an example of LTBH (Long Term Buy and Hold) and a rare case of me buying stock from a hot tip. Yes, I own a miniscule portion of GERN. Up ~18%? That’s a good day. Waiting for it since December 1999? Well, LTBH can have its drawbacks.

First, for the technical bits. So far, Business Wire has been my source of information (thanks to a tweet and the person who tweeted it.) You’ve already seen the title. Here is a link and some snippets.

• Link – https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240606850162/en/Geron-Announces-FDA-Approval-of-RYTELO%E2%84%A2-imetelstat-a-First-in-Class-Telomerase-Inhibitor-for-the-Treatment-of-Adult-Patients-with-Lower-Risk-MDS-with-Transfusion-Dependent-Anemia
• commercial-stage biopharmaceutical
• Lower-risk MDS is a progressive blood cancer with high unmet need, where many patients with anemia become dependent on red blood cell transfusions
• 24 weeks of freedom from the burden of red blood cell transfusions
• RYTELO™ (imetelstat)

I’d like to say that the link is self-explanatory. Within itself it is. Within the community of retail investors I suspect it isn’t.

• commercial-stage biopharmaceutical
  
  Change one word, and the company’s futures change. ‘Commercial”. For years, Geron has been variously called ‘clinical trial’, ‘leading edge’, ‘bleeding-edge’ (by less sensitive writers), ‘innovative’, etc. Commercial means people can now expect to see data that includes dollar signs. It has been a decades-long journey.
• 
  Lower-risk MDS is a progressive blood cancer with high unmet need, where many patients with anemia become dependent on red blood cell transfusions

Finally, something tangible. They can now treat a cancer, and like many cancers, it has a ‘high unmet need’. Good for the patients. Good for the company. Also good for the company is an allusion to the possibility that this technology can treat other cancers, too. Precedence has now been set, which should accelerate any subsequent submissions to the FDA – I hope.

• 24 weeks of freedom from the burden of red blood cell transfusions

This is even more tangible. Patients have required regular transfusions, not a simple process. Much more cumbersome than taking a pill or getting an injection. But, it also means weeks of freedom, but not indefinitely.

• RYTELO™ (imetelstat)

And, as usual, now that I finally have gotten better at spelling imetelstat, they change the name to some scrambled Scrabble assortment of letters, with a TM, too.

But what about me and GERN?

August 22, 2022 I recorded a video in my One Company One Story video series.

I’ll have to rewatch it to see how far removed my guesstimate was from today’s reality.

As I’ve mentioned before, I chronicled my investing strategy in my boo about frugal personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live. (https://www.amazon.com/stores/T.-E.-Trimbath/author/B0035XVXAA), an ill-timed book that came out as the Great Recession (which I think should be called the Second Great Depression) started. Bad timing.

Buy stock in small, overlooked, hopefully temporarily underappreciated companies. Wait for their stock to rise sufficiently. Sell. Dream. Invest. Live. Not Buy. Hoard. Be greedy.

It has worked. And then it didn’t. And now it might be working again. (Details through 1998 are in the book. A sequel might happen, but I’ve got a scifi sequel to finish, as a tall ship screenplay, too.)

I retired at 38 in 1998. A younger friend retired then, too. “Buy GERN.” Our conversation was much longer and wider. The last time I checked, he’d sold. LTBH has its limits. I bought more.

One commentor today posted about the effects of dilution. 

Seven years ago, I posted a MVIS version.

Dilution keeps startup companies out of debt, but it also means that, even without selling, a 0.1% share of a company becomes 0.01%, 0.001%, etc. What’s so big about 0.1%? If the company becomes worth $1B, then the shares are worth $1M. Humbler, but more than sufficient.

So, how should I tell this story, from old to new, or new to old? I’ll start new because any new reader is likely to only see this from the perspective of the recent news.

GERN was up 17.99% today. Nice. It bobbled about a bit, but for about the last four hours of the trading day it settled down to ~18%. Makes me glad I bought some near the end of May.

Within the last month the stock is up 18.6% (Google Finance). So much for a steady climb before the news.

Over the last year, up 28.93%. Even better, especially when compared to historical market averages that are in single digits.

For the last five years, 225.53%. ! It really didn’t start moving until mid-2022, which could match with Geron entering a new phase within the clinical trials.

Looking at GERN’s history back to 1996, and – ugh – down 36.25%. There was a peak to over $50 in 2000, which made my 1999 purchase look awesome. But then it fell as clinical trials took longer, asset sales kept the company afloat, but also reduced its internal diversification. (I bought into some of those acquiring companies.) 

Let’s go back to a theoretical 1999 with a theoretical $1,000 purchase. Theoretically, assume achieving a goal of doubling an investment every 5 years. High risk, high reward. Right?

2004 = $2,000
2009 = $4000
2014 = $8,000
2019 = $16,000
2024 = $32,000 theoretically.

Realistically, not with GERN. GERN has a long way to go to reach those levels, and dilution was effectively shrinking the shares simultaneously.

But, I bought more about six more times. Once in 2021, and also last month. A financial storm meant I sold those first shares, so calculating my total return is more work than I want to do today. And today is only a snapshot. 

It is the weekend. Some analysts are probably working the weekend estimating things like the current industry revenues for the treatments, how much demand there will be for Geron’s treatment, who will pay what, how long it will take to generate revenues, how long it will take to train providers, etc; and compare that to Geron’s market cap. Do they buy or sell on Monday? I know I’ll hold. 

I paused typing as my brain went off into an internal list of analyses and estimates I’d conduct if it was my job. I won’t. My book was titled Dream. Invest. Live. on purpose. Have a dream. Invest to get there. Then live. Don’t get stuck in the dream phase. Don’t get trapped by the investment world. Remember to live.

I am hopeful because the treatment works. People will be better. The treatment may work for more, too. Geron may finally make money. Investors may want shares so they can share in the good news/asset growth. I’m finally debt-free, again, but my new old big tiny house has an overhanging shade tree that has split in five places. There goes a couple of thousand. Life. Gotta pay for these things. And it looks as if I will be able to.

Social Security and a pension from Boeing’s happier days mean I don’t have to sell stock to pay bills. I’m frugal anyway. Whew. It is sunny. The lawn is mowed. This is typed. The tree trimmer is scheduled for next week. – As the fridge whines to life. It’s always something.

This post is about this day, June 7, 2024. The next several months will modify the percentages and the totals. Thanks to the bittersweet sale of my island home, I now have a tiny house outside a tourist town, and a more diversified portfolio. I wonder if the stocks I’ve bought will help me live in my new dream. Thanks, to the people at Geron.