My bad. Consistency! A few days ago, I was talking with a client about the value of consistency. Be predictable. Be reliable. Build trust. And then I broke that very pattern because I found a rare opportunity for a specific research-y road trip. Life happens. Roll with it. My light embarrassment inspired heavier internal reflection. Welcome to it. Let’s see where this goes.

Recently, Dan Pedersen died. He knew it was coming. Some ailments are like that. Dan was a mystery writer who reliably wrote books about fictitious murder mysteries on Whidbey Island. He wrote well, and reliably. Writing On Whidbey Island – Dan Pedersen
He may have been better known among islanders for his blog. Saturday morning meant time to check in on each week’s commentary on life, nature, philosophy, and serious issues handled more lightly and light issues revealed for their more serious foundation. There’s a lot to learn from the wildlife that visits a rural garden. He was reliable, and good. He is missed.

I gave a talk or two with Dan. We both wrote books. We both had blogs. Our styles differed, though. I wasn’t sure what I was going to write about as I sat down to write this blog post. They tend to be open, unstructured, rambling – and where was I? Dan would start writing his similarly-sized post early in the week, then edit it over a few days, then schedule its publication for Saturday morning. His reliability was one of his strengths. My style is better suited for being ready to respond to life’s random timing. Both are valid, I hope.

Prepare to shift mental gears. Engage clutch. Change speed appropriately. Shift. Resume. (BTW That’s familiar to those who know how to drive a stick shift and an education to those who don’t. Use your knowledge wisely. Don’t grind those gears!)

I spend enough time on social media (as tetrimbath) to teach classes in it (or did before Covid.) To some, the idea of devoting an hour a day to browsing Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram is abhorrent. It can seem that there’s nothing but trash there. To some, a mountain is a pile of rocks that gets in the way. To a miner, sifting the right mountain the right way is one way to find gold, or something similarly precious.

During one of my social media mining expeditions, I came across this tweet.

This sparked a recollection of a conversation with John Shelton, a Ph.D Psychologist using Nudge Psychology for Profitable Investing. (Go to his LinkedIn page to buy his books.) We talked about many things the last time we met, which led him to suggest we talk about cognitive bias the next time we meet.

Bias, reinforced beliefs, people wanting to feel comfortable regardless of reality – yeah, that definitely describes personal finance and investing.

We humans are silly things. An automaton could reassess all assumptions, verify the latest developments, access the most recent data, and then make a decision. I’m guessing that most humans aren’t aware of their assumptions. They only track developments that make their preferred news channels. Data scares some. Decisions are made from out-moded attitudes, perspectives, antiquated world models, and possibly reduced to habits and gut-feelings. When viewed from the outside, we are silly, even when we are serious.

I try to be methodical about my investing. (Details in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.) By convenience, I check my stocks when I check my social media. Even when I had significantly greater funds and a much larger portfolio, I only bought or sold a few times a year. Stock prices can change every second or so when the markets are open. Rumors pop up almost daily. Data is released quarterly. Real news, however, can take months, years, or decades to develop. Of course, when it does develop, then rumors and stock prices accelerate. (My favorite episode was watching an investor live-stream a stock’s trading activity. Eventually, they had to go to the bathroom, which meant leaving the screen to only show the stock price. As soon as he was gone, news/rumors hit, and the price jumped 20%. Twenty percent in the time it took to take a short break. It happens.)

Followers may know about my more public process. I review my portfolio every six months in my Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. Every six months, I review each of my stocks. That ensures that none are neglected. I try to do it reliably, which tends to be June 30 and December 31, which also means distracting myself during two holiday seasons. Silly human.

Being reliable does not equate to being profitable. The success of a company is not tied to my attentions. Being reliable does not equate to being liked. Most people want their beliefs to be reinforced, not challenged.

But being reliable and being consistent – and taking notes and data – means I can review whether I’ve been consistent in my actions. Things are always changing, but I can tell when my finances have changed because of things inside or outside of my control. That internal consistency eases my considerations of how I got here and where I might be going. One weird consequence is having to frequently convince others that, yes, I thought it through; no, there was no way to see that coming; yes, you’re right, it would never happen to you.

From John,
“Our brains are wired to be overconfident. This is because our brains are constantly trying to make sense of the world around us, and we often do this by filling in the gaps with our assumptions and biases.“

Prepare for the last major shift in this post. (See instructions above.)

Life is crazier and stranger than before. AI is redefining work. Politics are shifting to the point that the Russians we’ve designed to defend against are now invading one country while some of us support the victims and others are becoming enablers. The world’s changes are finally so significant that we can’t rely on old ideas of seasons and where to find food. All we need to whack this whole chart is to find that the UFOs are about aliens that are from Earth.

Maybe that’s why we liked Dan’s work. He was reliable. He was caring. He had a good sense of humor and compassion. And he provided an easy structure that highlighted the transition to a weekend.

Dan’s gone. You may not have known Dan, but you probably know your own version. I’m an innovator, inventor, creative, and explorer of ideas; yet, I rely on a structure of repetition. I can create my personal structure of reliable practices to provide some stability within this wild world. Here, I show it through descriptions of personal finance, and somewhat through writing. I add to it personally through dancing (not regularly enough), exercise (also not regularly enough), and all those chores, tasks, and responsibilities that are layered on a life. I admit to being overwhelmed by decades of accumulated practices; so, pardon me if some day’s my writing is a bit off schedule, or responding to emails is a bit late, or various internal apologies that my body and mind remind me of. (Take that nap, dude. And get that walk in. And think of something fun to do tonight. And, And, And…)

Where have I rambled to? Oh yeah. Right. That road trip was an opportunity to consider another life. Moving to a new area highlights old habits. New trails. News dancers and dance floors. Reconnecting with karate because of a new-found dojo. New views. Being closer to old friends. Maybe it’s time. Let me check my portfolio, first.