NPTN Buyout Aftermath – Checking My Running List

How does that phrase go? “Last time on this show…” It is time for me to find a new investment because NPTN is selling, er, has been bought out. My previous post chronicled how I went from considering the entire market (~8,000 stocks) down to about two dozen using largely objective criteria. (NPTN Buyout Aftermath – Stock Screening Begins) This week I took the next step. By the way, a step a week is about the right pace for me. I can do it more quickly, but life’s frantic enough – especially for a relatively small position. This week’s task was to review my running or rolling or ever-evolving list of intriguing companies based on more subjective criteria. This step was more fun.

Last week’s process dealt with things like market cap, stock price, debt/equity, etc. Very objective criteria.

This week’s process was to review a list of companies based on subjective criteria. That subjective criteria is basically, “Hey, gee, that’s neat.” The longer description is also basic but may sound more mature. As I read articles, talk to friends, see what people are buying, and generally do some amateur projections I create a list. That list is companies, industries, technologies, and trends without regard to whether they are specific stocks.

The best example was Pixar. (For details see my book, Dream. Invest. Live.) I saw one of their first animations, back when Steve Jobs had been kicked out of Apple and started following his passions for hardware (NEXT) and software (the company that became Pixar.) I knew they weren’t public, but I waited and watched because it seemed inevitable and something I didn’t want to miss. I bought the stock, held while people scoffed and laughed, and sold when Disney bought them out. And yes, I do imagine how much more profitable my investment would’ve been if the company had remained independent.

(Aside: I’m selling off much of my Pixar memorabilia, so contact me if you’re interested, or watch for me on eBay.)

Here’s my list that I finally organized.

nanomaterials/nanotech
quantum computing
high capacity battery/capacitor
superconductor
RadPowerBikes
Fisker
LTA Research and Exploration
Aptera
Skydio
Beyond Meat
Rocket Lab
e-bikes
drone delivery manufacturer, operator, dispatcher, port
Leafly
decentralized/off-grid
Arrival (private EV company)
Canoo
IKON – printed houses
NFT
crypto for marijuana
OTCMKTS: TGCB
Einride
ElectraMeccanica
https://www.nimbus.green/
Electric aviation startup BETA Technologies
Fate Therapeutics
Vertical Aerospace

Do you see any order? If there is one, it is accidental. I just keep a file open and dump notes into it as ideas come to mind.

The next step was to sort them into companies with publicly-listed stocks, companies that might have issue stock publicly, hints of companies, general industries, and simply ideas.

Arrival (private EV company)
Rocket Lab
Fisker
Beyond Meat
Fate Therapeutics
Canoo
ElectraMeccanica
OTCMKTS: TGCB

RadPowerBikes
LTA Research and Exploration
Aptera
Skydio
Leafly
ICON – printed houses
NFT
Einride
https://www.nimbus.green/
Electric aviation startup BETA Technologies
Vertical Aerospace

nanomaterials/nanotech
quantum computing
high capacity battery/capacitor
superconductor
crypto for marijuana
e-bikes
drone delivery manufacturer, operator, dispatcher, port
decentralized/off-grid

Simply being able to organize them was entertaining because I had to research each well enough to remind myself about their stories. Some I crossed off because they’re in industries I’m not interested in. I might have heard about a subsidiary that was intriguing, but if their main business is something like defense or fossil fuel production, then they were removed.

Seven of them are actively traded:
Arrival (ARVL)
Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Fisker (FSR)
Beyond Meat (BYND)
Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Canoo (GOEV)
Electra Meccanica (SOLO)

Again, I had a long list and shrunk it relatively quickly. If it took any time it was because I enjoyed reading their stories. It was interesting to see that many of them were working on electric vehicles or aerospace or both, with one that is for meat-less meat. I only need one stock, so I concentrated on those, trimmed the rest of the list, and set it aside for later.

Because they are publicly traded I was able to apply last week’s objective criteria. The simplest one was market cap, how big is the company? As I stated in the previous post, I prefer to find small companies that are overlooked, wait until they and their stock become popular, then sell if I think they’ve risen too high. Another way of looking at it is, how much larger can they grow? A $1T company has a rough time making it to $2T. There’s room for a company to go from $100B to $200B, but few do so well. For a company to go from $10B to $20B is newsworthy; but I’d prefer to buy when a company is valued at $1B because the jump to $2B is relatively easy, and a $1T company probably was worth about $1B at one point.

None of the companies on this list were on the previous post’s list. That made me go, hmm.

Ah, almost all of them are valued at over $2B, one is valued at under $0.1B, and only one fell into my criteria of over $0.1B and under $1B. All of them have compelling stories, but if they are already valued at $6B, how much could my investment grow?

Missing on that one criteria does not mean they are no longer candidates, but if I feel compelled to include one with a market cap of $5B, then I return to the previous list and expand it to $5B, as well.

There’s room in my investing to balance objective criteria and subjective criteria. Finance and passion. Math and story. Reasons to benefit my portfolio and reasons to meet my other criteria of being innovative and positive solutions that can benefit my portfolio, society, and the planet; especially if they disrupt archaic industries. Pixar wasn’t trying to heal the planet, but witness the changes they made to the technological and the narrative aspects of animation. Someone has an idea that can dramatically and positively change the transportation industry? Yes, I am interested.

The one stock that meets my existing criteria (pardon me as I have to dig into my research again, because I don’t memorize this stuff unless I’m about to buy) is Electra Meccanica (SOLO). They’re an electric vehicle designer and manufacturer concentrating including three-wheeled vehicles for cities – and with some retro-styled ideas – and vehicles for people and companies – and… I have to learn more about them. One of my secondary criteria is to buy local. They’re a Canadian company, and I live in Washington State; so they’re not exactly local, but they’re also only about 100 miles, oops, 160 kilometers from my house. (And if BC decided to annex western WA, well, cool.)

Another criteria is to check on how popular the company’s stock is with the investment community. If I’d checked this list last year the number of candidates would’ve been higher, but some of these companies already saw a swell of interest. One of them rose more than 600%. It may already be ‘found’. Folks who have been following the story of one of my other holdings (MVIS) can appreciate the similarities.

The next step will be to do more research into SOLO, reassess the criteria, revise the previous analysis, then revise the list.

For me, personal finance isn’t just about finances, it is also about personal values. Finance without values is easy to fall into pursuing money for money. All values without respecting finances is more fun, but more like playing the lottery. And for me, personal finance is that middle, that bridge in the title of my book; Dream. Invest. Live. Investing is powerful, but it is incomplete without having a dream and living a life. So, I’ll put this aside because there are friends to talk to, chores around the house, and an appreciation of the value of relaxing now and not just hoping to later.

About Tom Trimbath

real estate broker / consultant / entrepreneur / writer / photographer / speaker / aerospace engineer / semi-semi-retired More info at: https://trimbathcreative.net/about/ and at my amazon author page: http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA
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