Surely, MicroVision and MVIS would finally get some good news in March. Or not. Provide four opportunities for positive surprises and at least one of them will succeed. Yes? Evidently, no. Oh yeah, and then there was the one big negative. That didn’t help either. Luck happens, both good and bad. I’ve experienced that. MicroVision and its catalysts continue to experience it. Is good luck the only thing that is missing?
Maybe I tweet too much. Within the last month I tweeted about MicroVision’s possible positive prospects for March, but I can’t find the tweet – oh wait, here it is.
— Tom Trimbath (@tetrimbath) March 1, 2016
Four products had possible launch dates:
- Sharp’s RoBoHoN,
- Celluon’s PicoBit,
- Qualper’s smartphone, and
- Viewsmart’s projector.
Sounds good. Even if they aren’t expected to be mega-sellers, positive news should produce proportionally positive results. RoBoHoN slid out to June. PicoBit and Viewsmart were quiet. Qualper may have launched! but in a language that was hard and confusing to translate.
In the middle of the lack of news came news – of dilution, a technique for finding funds that many shareholders thought was behind the company. If the company was hunting for funds, that suggested that the backlog and order book weren’t enough to pay the bills. The company raised about $7M. The stockholders saw their percentage ownership fall again. The market dropped the share price over 30%. Welcome to the world of a sub-$2 share price and the prospect of yet another reverse split.
MicroVision has moved from being an investment to a speculation to a guessing game. So little news comes out that they can’t over-promise, but any unexpected bad news is taken as the company under-delivering.
As a fellow shareholder passed along to me, “And a certain small company is doing a lot better than people give it credit for.” They may be right, but we lack evidence to support the claim.
Since my Triple Whammy, I’ve maintained my optimism about my situation by reflecting on a long list of positive possibilities in my life. My Backup Plans haven’t changed much. My investment portfolio may recover. My consulting and artistic business continues to grow. My job prospects continue to improve, as I hear my name being included in unsolicited opportunities – though I haven’t heard the details about who, where, when, what, but I can guess at why. More about that, later. Seattle housing has become such a seller’s market that the median time on the market is rapidly approaching only a week. I don’t want to sell my house, but I might if it hits my Make Me Move price. Being debt-free has its advantages. And, of course, serendipity happens and good news can come in unannounced.
The present value of the sum of my positive efforts is 85% of my frugal expenses – and taxes are due. It if wasn’t for the death of my father, I’d be further in debt. Instead, I’ve at least been able to get the truck fixed and the septic system cleaned. Another check is due, and it may take care of the taxes, though probably won’t arrive until after I’ve paid the IRS via credit card. Aside from that temporary influx of cash, my situation hasn’t changed much.
I feel for MicroVision. Lots of potential requiring lots of patience requiring lots of innovative financing.
Bad luck happens. I’ve started collecting success stories. One common thread is usually a casual comment that includes, “and then, luckily…”. Hard work works, but it usually relies on at least one bit of good luck. Good luck can work alone, which is one reason I buy lottery tickets, but that goes beyond investing, speculating, and guessing and heads straight to wishing.
I suspect MicroVision is doing better than we can know, but not so well that they can ignore the reality of improving their cash position. Eventually, these troubled times may be recalled as temporary discomforts that are eventually readily resolved.
In my situation, I’m already witnessing improvements that contrast with my recent difficulties. I no longer wince at the phone ringing, because I no longer get calls from the mortgage collectors. I no longer wonder if the Sheriff’s drive through the neighborhood is part of posting an eviction notice on my door. I no longer worry as much about the truck failing, but I am hoping to get new tires to replace the ones that have been in use since the last Bush presidency. I can now rest in my rest room because I can flush again.
Most of those improvements in my life aren’t apparent to anyone on the outside looking in. That may be true of MicroVision as well. Unfortunately, the objective news and data available suggest delays, cancellations, and inefficiencies. But, that was March. April will be much better. Right?